中文A new global study from UPM Specialty Materials and Smithers paints a clear picture of the next two decades in food packaging: fibre-based materials are on track to take the leading share of the global food packaging market by 2045, growing from 37 percent today to 42 percent. The shift, according to the research, will be driven by barrier coating innovation, tighter regulation, rising recycling rates, and changing consumer expectations around sustainability.
The study, based on input from more than 230 packaging professionals across the value chain, finds that 71 percent of respondents expect fibre-based packaging to be seen as the most sustainable option by 2045. That perception is increasingly backed by policy. Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes, eco-modulation fees, and recycling performance requirements are already reshaping material selection in major markets, and the research expects sustainability to shift from brand differentiator to baseline regulatory requirement over the next two decades.
Barrier coating technology is the single biggest enabler. Fibre-based materials have historically been limited in food packaging applications by their permeability to oxygen, moisture, and grease. Advances in barrier coatings, including bio-based and recyclable options, are now allowing paper and board to compete directly with plastics in categories that were once considered out of reach. The UPM/Smithers research highlights that progress as a decisive factor in fibre’s growing share.
“Our role is to support customers in this transition with high-performance, sustainable solutions that do not compromise on functionality,” said Janne Varvemaa, Director of Products and Technology at UPM Specialty Materials. The framing reflects a broader industry conversation: sustainability cannot come at the cost of product performance, and the suppliers that win will be those that can deliver both.
Recycling infrastructure is also part of the story. The study forecasts global recycling rates will rise from 31 percent in 2030 to 37 percent by 2045. That is meaningful progress, but the research is candid about what is still missing. Landfill and incineration will continue to account for a significant share of end-of-life material, and regional infrastructure gaps, particularly in parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America, will remain a real constraint. Without investment in collection, sorting, and processing, even the best material design will struggle to deliver its full sustainability promise.
For brand owners, the study is a useful signal that the move toward fibre-based packaging is not a niche trend. It is a structural shift with regulatory, technological, and consumer drivers all pulling in the same direction. Procurement, packaging design, and marketing teams will need to align on a fibre-forward strategy, and the supplier base that supports that strategy will need to scale alongside demand.
For packaging converters, the implications are equally significant. Capital investment in fibre-friendly printing, converting, and barrier coating lines is likely to accelerate. Printers and converters that have built deep expertise in paper and board, with strong positions in food and beverage end markets, are well placed to benefit. Those that have relied heavily on plastic-based substrates will need to plan a transition carefully, both technically and commercially.
The study also maps the role of regulatory pressure. As more jurisdictions align on recyclability definitions, recycled content thresholds, and labeling requirements, the relative cost of switching to compliant materials will fall. That should remove one of the historical objections to fibre-based packaging: that it is more expensive or harder to run on existing converting lines. Standardization tends to drive scale, and scale tends to drive cost down, which in turn accelerates adoption.
The study is also a useful reminder that sustainability targets and commercial realities are not always in perfect alignment. Fibre-based materials are not a drop-in replacement for plastics in every application, and the transition will play out differently across categories, regions, and end uses. The UPM/Smithers research is, in that sense, a roadmap with several open questions still to be answered.
The study is also a useful counterweight to the more enthusiastic marketing claims that surround fibre-based packaging. By 2045, fibre will lead the food packaging market, but it will not be the only material in it. Plastics, glass, metal, and emerging bio-based substrates will all retain meaningful share in categories where their functional properties are genuinely required. The more interesting question is not which material wins, but how the value chain organizes itself to deliver the right material for the right application, with credible evidence of sustainability performance to back it up. The UPM/Smithers research is, in that sense, a starting point for a more nuanced conversation about the future of food packaging.
It is also worth noting that the UPM/Smithers research is, in part, a strategic communication. UPM is a major supplier of fibre-based materials and barrier coating technologies, and a credible, well-sourced forecast that fibre is on track to lead food packaging by 2045 supports the company’s investment thesis. That does not make the research less useful, but it is worth keeping in mind that the framing of long-horizon forecasts always reflects the perspective of the organizations that commission them. The underlying data on regulatory direction, recycling infrastructure, and consumer preference is robust enough to be taken seriously on its own merits.
Source: INKISH.NEWS
